Thursday, December 15, 2016
Election Results and Causation Explained With Statistical Clarity
Our Statistical Analytics Department ("SAD") has been asked to address the question of whether Comey's "re-opening" Clinton email investigation 12 days before the election caused the losses in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, which Trump won by very few votes. Here's the answer: One can assume that, but for that Comey announcement, Clinton would have won those states, but, to say that announcement was the cause of her losing is to give greater weight to the last votes that came in for Trump than the first votes that went for Trump. Put another way, if X caused 200,000 to decide to vote for Trump before any Comey announcement, and Comey's announcement gave Trump 10,000 votes he would not have gotten, it is weird to say that Comey's announcement was the cause of Clinton's loss and not say X was the cause of Clinton's loss.