Impact of Tesla's Cutting Prices

As we've noted, Tesla has done some substantial price cuts on some of its models. Customers who happened to buy a car just before the prices were cut are furious ... but just as IBM prevailed against American Republic Insurance when it bought a new 370 system a few days before IBM slashed prices, those Tesla buyers have no recourse ... and good luck trying to get Tesla's pricing documents and don't go mentioning the Donovan/Leisure case even if opposing counsel is a kid. The salient point is now Ford is cutting its EV prices and it would not be surprising if other EV manufacturers did as well.

[EOP]  

Tip on Finding Vacation Rentals

When looking for vacation rentals (whether through airbnb, vrbo, or whomever), unless your trip must be at specific dates, put in relatively short dates during off-season. That way, you will see virtually everything that might be available and, once you identify places you might like, you can check their calendar against your calendar.

[EOP] 

The ABCs of Rapid Home Tests

As this NYT article explains, rapid home tests are a helpful tool for stopping the spread of Covid-19, but they’re not foolproof. The article further explains why you might get a false negative result — and how to increase your chances of accuracy next time.

[EOP]

Under the Amalfi Sun (2022 Movie on Netflix)

It's hard to believe given the beauty of the Amalfi coast that a romantic movie would be a flop, but Under the Amalfi Coast is a big time flop. The characters are mindless and for the most part not endearing. Not only is the ending predictable, but the end of each scene is predictable. In short, this movie is a big snooze fest.

[EOP]

Car Leasing: Years to Comeback; Used Cars: A Different Story

When car availability plummeted as a result of the pandemic, leasing dried up as an option. Although supply is starting to recover, as this article explains, it likely will be years before leasing returns as a major option in car acquisitions. At the same time, as this other article explains, the pandemic used-car boom is coming to an abrupt end with dealerships seeing sales and prices drop as consumers tighten their belts, 

[EOP]

The Inflation Debate

If you think you're alone in confusion as to whether or not inflation is poised to abate or resume, take comfort that you are not alone. Maybe it's refreshing or maybe it's scary, but as this WSJ article explains, the Fed is debating this very issue.

[EOP]

Tips re Avoiding Credit Card Fraud

While we have mentioned them in various posts, this WaPo article presents a helpful summary of the key ways to reduce the likelihood of being subjected to credit card fraud. First on their list, and on ours, is to set alerts for any purchase or transaction on your cards. While a bit annoying to get an alert whenever you incur a charge, getting immediate notice of a charge someone else made on your card is worth that annoyance.

[EOP]

You People (2023 Movie on Netflix)

Even if you thought Guess Who's Coming to Dinner  was an edgy, daring, and insightful look at racism, and didn't consider it insipid and trite prone, you'll hate You People because, believe it or not, it is less edgy, less daring, and less insightful, and even more insipid and trite prone. You wouldn't think there's enough money in the world to pay Spencer Tracy, Katherine Hepburn, Sidney Poitier, Eddie Murphy, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus enough money to utter the tripe they uttered in these two films, but apparently there is.

[EOP] 

Pros and Cons of an Automated House

The great thing about automating one's house is the ability to check remotely that everything you have set on timers or otherwise is working as it should. The bad thing about automating one's house is the ability to check remotely that everything you have set on timers or otherwise is working as it should because something might go wrong (like you've lost touch with your thermostat because the batteries in it went dead) and you know about it but you're off in another country. The best advice I have, should you automate your house, is to be sure you have wonderful neighbors. You can't thank them enough for the relief they will bring in putting you back in touch with your thermostat.

[EOP]

Smart Heating Pads

If you think a heating pad is just something to plug in and all it does it heat up, it's time to emerge from your cave. As this WSJ article sets out, now they massage, they pulse, they glow, and some are even wireless.

[EOP]

Amazon Fresh (Whole Foods) Free Home Delivery: End of an Era

One big benefit of Amazon Prime was the ability to have Whole Foods stuff delivered for free with a $35 minimum purchase. As of February 28, those days are gone. The minimum purchase for free delivery will be $150. Purchases of under $50 will carry a $9.95 charge. Likely Amazon knows something I don't know, but I would expect the demand for this food delivery service will shrink dramatically. What makes this so infuriating is that I just got the direct telephone line to Amazon Fresh which made for resolving any problems a snap.

[EOP]

Dead to Me (Last Season on Netflix)

The problem with Dead to Me is that, despite the leads, it's just not that good. In essence, it tries to do too much and ends up doing too little.  As a result, as it switches rom sub-plot to sub-plot to sub-plot, rather than building interest, it gives the viewer a headache and dulls their senses. Put another way, it is difficult to stay interested in half hour episodes that go from being a murder story, to the issues of having terminal cancer, to the complexities of friendship, to parenting matters from the perspective of the parent as well as the child as well as the adult child, and more. Perhaps the highlight of the season is when "Next Episode" no longer appears in the lower right at the end of the episode, because then you'll say, "Thank goodness, I don't have to watch this any more."

[EOP]

Possible Wordle Hint

This is anecdotal and merely an impression, but my heightened sense of how they choose the wordle answer is they have an unconscious preference for having the same letter appear twice in the answer word. By way of example, if you are at WOR_Y, you have 3 choices for your next move: wordy, wormy, or worry. As everyone who played yesterday knows, worry was the answer. Further then, when you go to step 2, and step 1 revealed more than one letter, do not hesitate to use a revealed letter again (there's no reason to if only 1 letter was revealed on step 1 but that would be too complicated for me to explain).

[EOP] 

Another Way to Watch The Game (Eagles/SF) in Mexico

Walking the beach is so beautiful it is impossible not to walk it every day twice even when it's windy. Today, the wind was way down allowing for an even longer morning walk. Although few people were out on the beach, after making the turn-around to head back, we came across a guy (named Ray)with a really neat dog (named Ella) who would fetch a stick thrown into the water. After complimenting him about the dog, he noticed I was wearing a Penn hat. Turns out, he grew up in Philadelphia and went to college (La Salle 1967) and med school (Temple) in Philadelphia, and then ended up living in Seattle and then Portland where he now lives half time and half time here. We had a delightful conversation, and as it was winding up, I explained my plight and asked him if he knew anywhere I could watch the first half of The Game (the Wine Cellar here, the only place with cable, won't open on Sunday until 1.5 hours after the game has started, and Augie's Bar and Bait Shop looked to be not such a pleasant place). Knock me over with a feather, Ray has cable at his house, and we will be joining him for the game there … we’re going to bring lunch (which he knows we’ll be doing) along with beer and a nice bottle of wine (which he doesn’t know we’re bringing). The only “downside” is that his wife is from San Francisco. What a world!

PS: The Chiefs/Bengals game will start about a half hour after The Game is over. I don't mind missing that game, but given the two quarterbacks, I wouldn't mind watching it. Alas, I don't dare fly too close to the sun, and I could go to The Wine Cellar and watch it there, although I would miss at least part of the first quarter. 

[EOP]

Password Managers

LastPass had been the number one password manager until it had a data breach. Despite that breach, it is still highly rated, but now 1Password is thought by many to be the best choice. If you are on LastPass, the conversion of your data from LastPass to 1Password is said to be painless. I don't know whether iPassword is easier or harder to use than LastPass.

[EOP]

Rao's Homemade Marinara

When TJ's Autumnal Pasta Sauce is not available (and it's often not because of TJ's inane seasonal stockings), Rao's Homemade Marina is the best choice of jar pasta sauces. Don't believe me. Click on the link for the WaPo story on the matter.  In the WaPo rankings, TJ's Tomato Basil Marinara came in second.

[EOP]

Reaching Websites From Outside the U.S.

There are some websites one might typically go to that, for some reason, do not recognize you when you try to sign in or won't open. A loyal reader has reported that adding a VPN connection might solve this problem, and I believe it does (e.g., it appears one can see the Eagles/SF game through a VPN that connects to a server in Germany). What''s really odd is that the sites that might not be reachable from one's laptop or whose login info is not recognized might be easily reachable through the website's app on one's phone or tablet.

[EOP]

Streaming Live U.S. TV Shows Outside the U.S.

It might be possible, but I cannot figure it out. While there are plenty of services through which one can stream live U.S. TV shows (YouTube, Hulu, or the channel itself), there does not seem to be a way to get any of those streams outside the U.S., like if you're in Mexico. As a result, you might not be able to watch the Eagles/SF NFC Conference Championship game from the comfort of your condominium. But all might not be lost. You can make a reservation at Augie's Bar & Bait Shop although it's still a good idea to have lunch or dinner there a few days before to introduce yourself and be sure they have your telephone reservation.

[EOP]

NFL Divisional Playoffs

The NFL divisional playoffs resulted in the best 4 teams reaching the conference championships, and thankfully sent the dreaded Cowboys home. In part, the Cowboys loss was the result of the overrated Dak Prescott putting in another one of his subpar performances. But it also was the result of one of the great catches in NFL history. 

[EOP]

Kamala Harris and the Border

Not that the VP has any real authority, but Kamala Harris was put in charge of border/immigration issues. Not an easy assignment or position. But, if you are visiting Arizona, if not instead of but at least in addition to tilting at windmills as power for the future, you might think to visit the border. It's not fun poking at Dems. But it's not fair that they don't give us such easy targets. Biden documents anyone?  

[EOP]

Some Initial Tips on Casago Rentals and Loreto Bay

1. Unless one gets (and pays for) an emergency exit seat, upgrading one's seating on the flight to Loreto Bay from Phoenix is not worth it. The flight is under 1.5 hours, a regular seat is not uncomfortable, and there is no problem storing even big bags in the overhead bins even though it's a small plane.

2. Don't worry that the documents you have to fill out before landing are impossible to understand. The Mexican customs people don't seem to look at them. So, just put something in each box. Remember one thing though for them and all other documents you have to put the date in--it's date/month/year NOT month/date/year.

3. The only big and best supermarket is just North of the airport. So, you might consider turning right when leaving the airport instead of left and doing a big shop based on the assumption there will be nothing in the condo. That said, it's easy to do a little stocking from a min-mart and have tapas and Corona as a mid afternoon snack right up the street in a very pleasant cafe, and do your big shop the next day after having breakfast at any number of places.

4. GPS might not be that helpful. Just drive down the highway for about 12 minutes and turn when you see the arches.

5. At least one condo is even more beautiful and comfortable than the pictures would have you believe. The only drawback is that one cannot see the water or the mountains from the main rooms of the condos. BUT, this unit has (and it looks like all of them have) outside terraces at the top that give you spectacular, indeed mesmerizing, views of both. Some of the condos seem to have circular staircases to get to the terrace, but at least some (and thankfully the one photographed above) does not ... just plain stairs.

6. The service by Casago (the property manager) is like the best ever!!!! By way of example, even if you ask them not to bother getting the door to the washer/dryer unjammed that day, it will be unjammed within minutes.

7. Best of all, and this is with just a few hours of data points, people walking the street are friendly and smile as are people running the mini-mart and the tapas bar.

[EOP]

That Whacky Housing Market

U.S. existing-home sales dropped 17.8% in 2022 to their lowest level since 2014 as interest rates rose at one point to over 7%. But, except at the lower-price end of the market, sale prices continued to climb albeit at a much slower rate than had been seen in the past 2 years. This apparent anomaly is explained when it is understood that potential sellers--most of whom have low-interest mortgages because they got them when they bought or they refinanced when mortgage rates swooned--have been loathe to put their houses on the market given the higher mortgage rates they would face if they moved, hence shrinking the supply. So, given that so-called law of supply and demand, while sales are down, existing homes supply is way down keeping prices up.

[EOP] 

The NFL Has Put the Goats Out to Pasture

None of the quarterbacks in the NFL playoffs is named Brady or Rodgers. Indeed, all eight quarterbacks in the NFL playoffs are in their 20s. 

[EOP] 

Stopping Chrome From Trying to Redirect to HTTPS

There can be a website you know is perfectly safe and you go to it with some frequency, but Chrome tries to stop you or delays for a long time because it is trying to direct to the HTTPS version of the site which doesn't exist. There is a way to disable Chrome from doing so on a domain-by-domain basis but it's difficult and weird. However, one can do so before going to any site or for all sites with a simple settings change. Go to Settings/Privacy and security/Security/Advanced, and turn off the blue button. Unless you want the HTTPS safety for all sites, remember to turn on the blue button after visiting the one site where you wanted to turn off the warning.

[EOP] 

Astrid (2019 TV Series on PBS Streaming)

If you liked The Bridge, you will LOVE Astrid. The plot is mesmerizing, the characters are fantastic, the acting is outstanding, it moves along, it holds your attention. Astrid is autistic and has an incredible memory, so she is very useful in analyzing files. The district commander decides to entrust her with very complex investigations which have remained unsolved to date. 

[EOP]

The Two Document Cases: Why Two Special Prosecutors?

If DOJ had given the Biden document case to Jack Smith, then, if the evidence so compelled, he could have indicted Trump, not indicted Biden, and distinguished the two cases. But, with two special prosecutors, Jack Smith will not have the same ability to distinguish the Biden case because he won't have the same access to the evidence.

[EOP] 

LIV Golf Gets a TV Channel

LIV Golf landed CW on broadcast/cable television to televise all its events (at least the Saturday and Sunday rounds). Yeah, it's not a major channel like CBS, NBC, ABC, or Fox, and it's not even a specialized channel like TGC, but it's a channel. And once someone turns on their TV, it's just as easily to watch or tape a show on CW as it is on any other channel. To date, advertisers (unaffiliated with the Saudis) are not lining up. But, even our loyal reader skeptics have to acknowledge it's a step forward for LIV Golf. It's not a homerun as we say in golf. But's it's not a missed field goal either.

[EOP] 

When It Comes to Earbuds, Tune Out Wirecutter

We love Wirecutter. But sometimes one's love interest is full of boloney. Here is what Wirecutter says about earbuds: "Let’s be honest: Most earbuds priced under $50 are junk. They’re uncomfortable, cheaply constructed, and terrible sounding." And when, as here, they are full of boloney, one must be honest and tell them so. We have used the below earbuds for more than a year and love them--they  are simple, charge wirelessly, comfortable, and sound great. Other loyal readers have fallen in love with their under $50 and even under $30 earbuds. When you buy them from Amazon, you can get them in a day and return them even faster if you don't like them, and try another set.  

[EOP]

One Thing Biden Might Do re the Document Cases

Biden has done some good things as president and some not so good things. But the one thing some might find unforgiveable (a la Ford's pardon of Nixon) is his taking and handling of classified and top secret documents, the effect of which is realistically to squash any chance of prosecuting Trump on his taking and handling of documents except perhaps for obstruction of justice (but even that is iffy given Biden's delay in disclosing the issue until after the mid-term elections even though he discovered the matter before the elections). In that vein, the one thing Biden might do now is pledge publicly his willingness to sit under oath any time any where with the special counsel appointed to investigate his case. Yeah, Trump will have no shortage of reasons why the circumstances are different and he shouldn't, but it can't hurt, and might help. It sure would be a better headline than the disclosure of additional documents turning up or the FBI declining to participate in any search or the lack of any visitor logs to locations where the documents were kept or the aforementioned delaying the disclosure of the problem.

[EOP]

Proper Ice Cube Box Protocol

If you don't have an automatic ice cube maker that piles ice cube into a box in the freezer, you should get one because they are wonderful. Once you do have one, the wrong protocol is to just keep taking ice cubes from the top of the box. In doing so, while you always will be getting newly made ice cubes, the older ice cubes will just sit there getting older until Hell freezes over. To avoid that, periodically, and with some frequency, lift the arm that stops new cubes from being made, and use up all the ice cubes before dropping the arm back down. And when you do, let the box fill just half way and then lift the arm to stop new cubes being made. And repeat.

[EOP] 

The Glass Onion (2022 Movie on Netflix)

The Glass Onion is terrible beyond words. 

[EOP]

Limits on EV and Solar Tax Credits Explained

This Schwab piece and this Kiplinger piece set out in simple terms the limits on EV tax credits for new and used cars and for solar tax credits. While we would have hoped that the income limits would have been lower--indeed, they should have been much lower (just as we said should have been done when the government just handed out money during the pandemic to many people who had no need for it which we are all paying for now but the poor are paying disproportionately more), at least very high income earners won't get an extra bonus for buying an EV car, and high-priced EVs don't qualify for tax credits. Also, many might not have realized that one can get a tax credit when buying a used EV, although again there are various conditions.

[EOP]

Changing Your Channel to Speed Up Your Wi-Fi

If your Wi-Fi seems to have slowed down, a simple router channel change can speed it up if a lot of households near you are using the same channel you are. Just download the free version of NetSpot and it will show you immediately the number of other users using the same router channel you are.

[EOP]

Last Post re I-bonds

I-bonds are clearly a great investment. The interest rate they pay and their safety are unmatched. But the TreasuryDirect website is exceedingly difficult to do anything on, they have no  email support, and the wait time for telephone support is 2+ hours (like I don't have anything better to do). By way of example, I originally bought my shares in my name instead of in my trust and could never get it switched. I've given up, redeemed my holdings, and put the proceeds in FDIC-insured non-callable 2025 and 2026 CDs paying about 4.5% ... not as good as I-bonds, but not shabby either. With that, this be the last post on this blog about I-bonds.

[EOP]

How Mood Rings Work

Everyone is wearing mood rings these days, and yes, they do work so you no longer have to guess at your mood. We've been pummeled by inquiries asking how they work, and here's the answer: Mood Rings contain thermotropic liquid crystals inside the stone or the band of the mood ring. These liquid crystals are able to show different colors at different temperatures. The liquid crystals in modern mood jewelry are usually made from a flat strip of liquid crystals with a protective coating. These crystals react to changes in temperature by twisting. The twisting changes their molecular structure, which alters the wavelengths of light or color that are reflected or absorbed.  When the temperature of the liquid crystals changes so will their color and this is how mood rings work. Our research tells us the the best mood rings come from this website in the UKom the UK because you can be assured they are fully hallmarked by the British Assay Office.

[EOP]

Dueling Wordle Goals

Getting the answer in step 1 involves pure luck (except a little bit less so perhaps sometimes during holidays). Getting the answer in step 2 takes a good opening word, much luck, and some deductive skill. Getting the answer in step 3 takes a decent opening word, some luck, and some additional deductive skill. Crunch time comes after a decent step 1, where one has the choice to go for the answer on step 2 or forego any chance of the answer by not using all one's known letters but instead leaving 1 or more out to increase the likelihood of doing a step 3. Players more interested in the thrill of a step 2 win will have lower overall averages because they will have fewer step 3 wins. Players more interested in their overall average will forgo the shot at step 2 to maximize the shot at step 3.As it turns out, you'd think that tennis players who prefer smash put-aways would opt for going for step 2 wins while more nuanced tennis players with more patience and a wider skill set of shots would opt for step 3 wins, but that would be wrong. The bottom-line is to take some time getting to know your inner self before playing Wordle. What is most interesting though, is that most players cannot vary between the two strategies: They feel compelled to do one or the other every day.

[EOP]

Possible Correction re Cox Post of Yesterday

This blog railed yesterday about Cox's miserly accommodation when one pleaded with them for anything as a result of multiple outages. As it turns out, we might have misunderstood what they gave us. We won't know for sure until the next billing cycle, but they might have reduced our monthly bill by $5 in addition to giving us $2.17 for each outage. $5 per month might not seem like a lot, but even 7.5 cents can add up to quite a bit over time.

[EOP]

Phoenix Plumber Recommendation

PlumbServe (Addam) is fantastic! The service is exceptional in every way--professional, efficient, courteous, and skilled. They are the best for any kind of plumbing or drainage issue and the charges are exceedingly reasonable.

Contact: Addam Galusha ... 480-428-0091; azplumbserve@gmail.com; www.azplubserve.com

[EOP]

The Benefit and Downside of Fixed Income Assets in an IRA

If you owned fixed income assets (CDs or bonds) before 2020, you watched them soar in value as the Fed slashed interest rates to zero. While that did you no good unless you sold them, the rise in value actually hurt you by raising the amount of your RMD from your IRA in 2021. On the other hand, as fixed income asset prices collapsed in 2022 when the Fed raised interest rates, you got the benefit of lowering your RMD from your IRA in 2023. Of course, if your plan was to hold these assets until they matured, ultimately, you got your premium back (unless any of the bonds defaulted) plus the interest they earned.

[EOP]

The Ideal Portfolio Mix: Even the Pros Can't Agree

As this WSJ article explains, the best-known names in asset management and investment banking are taking opposite sides in the debate over the classic way of building a portfolio—60% stocks and 40% bonds—after a disastrous performance for the 60/40 model last year. BlackRock says the losses—the worst in nominal terms for a 60/40 portfolio since the financial crisis of 2008-09 and the worst in real terms in a calendar year since the Great Depression—show that the structure is outdated. Goldman demurs, arguing that the odd big loss is inevitable in any strategy and that 60/40 remains a valid basic approach. Strategists and fund managers at other large money managers and banks have been piling in on both sides.

[EOP]

Suspicion (2022 TV Series on Apple TV+)

Suspicion is a weird series. It is the story of five ordinary Brits who are accused of kidnapping the son of a prominent U.S. media mogul. They embark on a desperate race against time to prove their innocence, but will anyone believe them - and are they telling the truth? It starts off great, and then seems to drag episode after episode. For the most part, it is difficult to understand what's going on or why the various characters do what they do. An astute loyal reader guessed at a plot after the second or third episode, and it was a brilliant guess, and would have made for a much better story than the story that played out. It attempts to be a morality play, but it fails miserably. Fortunately, it ultimately comes to an end, although even the ending makes little sense and does not tie up all or even most of the loose ends. But at that point, you're so glad it's over you could care less.

[EOP}

Don't Bother Reporting Outages to Cox for an Accommodation

Cox has had 3 multi-hour internet outages over the past 10 days. If you call in and beg for an accommodation, if they can confirm the outage, they will give you $2.50 per day of outage. It will take close to 20 minutes to close the deal. There surely are better ways to spend one's time.

[EOP]

Investing for the Short Term

As this NYT article explains, short-term FDIC-insured CDs (3-year and less--even 1-2 month as a place to store cash for 30  or 60 days) are excellent safe investments given their yields of over 4%. Just be sure, to avoid the pain one loyal reader still feels the sting of, that other than the ultra-short ones you get are non-callable. 

[EOP]

TV Football Coverage Hits a New Low

Anyone who watched the Seattle/San Francisco wildcard playoff game was treated to a new low by the Fox TV camera and director crew: They not only shot what has become standard fare of fans in the crowd, they actually did a slow motion (known in the trade as slo-mo) shot of a non-descript fan cheering in a routine fashion after a routine play. It's become now that it is impossible to watch a game without having it recorded on DVR not only to fast-forward (known in the trade as a ff) through the commercials but also to ff from the end of one play to the beginning of the next. In an unrelated annoyance of NFL games, it is one thing for a defense to celebrate a sack, but when, the opposing offense marched 85 yards from their own 10, and then the defense tackled the quarterback for a 2-yard loss on a run play, the celebration seems a bit much.

[EOP] 

Best Practices re Starting a Dishwasher Load

There apparently is some ignorance when it comes to the best practices when starting a dishwasher load. This Kitchn article will give you the skinny on the matter.

[EOP]

Worst Unabashed Pass-on by NYT

On January 5, the son of a loyal reader and his father co-authored the following letter which they submitted to the NYT: "'Will Rogers once said, "I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat.'  Given this week's events in the House of Representatives, it appears 222 representatives on one side of aisle might have the same sentiment about their party.'" This Sunday's NYT had an essay by Bret Stephens and David Brooks which opened with the following: "Bret Stephens: Lately I’ve been thinking about that classic Will Rogers line: “I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat.” A century or so later, it looks like the shoe is on the other foot. Is it even possible to call the Republican Party a “party” anymore?"

[EOP]

Alternative Solution to the Trump Document Case

As we said in an earlier post, irrespective of how anyone cares to parse the differences in the two cases, Biden's taking classified documents effectively nixes any chance Trump will be indicted for his taking of classified documents--even for obstruction of justice although on that ground the two cases just might be markedly different and prosecution of Trump possible only if those who handled the documents for Trump testify that Trump ordered the documents to be taken, held, and kept under wraps and not disclosed to the government. In short, there is just no way Trump is going to be indicted or prosecuted if Biden isn't indicted and prosecuted. That said, maybe the best way out for the country is to indict and prosecute both Biden and Trump which not only would be a strong statement in favor of the rule of law, but also would resolve any issue as to Biden's running in 2024.

[EOP]

Super Dragon (Phoenix Chinese Restaurant)

To the great chagrin and horror of everyone, Super Dragon is closing on March 31. It is for sale, however, so there's a slim hope we won't be abandoned. 

[EOP] 

LIV Golf: Perhaps Not So Rosy a Future

As this Golf Week article sets out, brought to our attention by a loyal reader, the prospects for LIV Golf might not be as rosy as some might have thought reading this blog.

[EOP]

Before Booking a STR, Be Sure to Check Its Listing on Both Airbnb and vrbo

There are at least three reasons to check a STR listing you are interested in on both Airbnb and vrbo: (i) The reviews will be different and you might find problems on one not mentioned on the other; (ii) the cost can be different (e.g., it appears Airbnb charges a higher service fee than vrbo and a host fee might apply on one listing but not the other); and (iii) the cancellation policies might be different (e.g., at one rental I'm looking at, vrbo provides for a full refund if cancelled by a certain date while Airbnb provides only a partial  (50% and no service fee) refund if canceled by that same date). 

PS: When the listing says "100% refund" if cancelled by a certain date, it might or might not include a refund of the service fee, which will amount to several hundred dollars.

[EOP] 

Impact of Tesla 3 Price Drop

From what I can tell on the Tesla website, yesterday: (i) they had several new cars in inventory ready for sale and today they are all gone; and (ii) the number of used cars they have in inventory has jumped while the prices appear to have come down substantially.

[EOP]

Some Basic Things to Do to Protect Against Identity Theft

1. Get a real-time immediate-alerting service that will let you know if there is any suspicious activity. Complete ID through Costco is excellent and inexpensive.

2. Put fraud alerts on your three credit bureau accounts.

3. Put freezes on your three credit bureau accounts.

4. Do not link your debit card to an account with substantial cash in it. If need be, open a separate checking account with limited cash to link your debit card to.

5. Do not keep more cash than you realistically need in your check account(s). Unlike a credit card fraud which posts a charge to your card, and normally is easy to remove, a checking account fraud draws (or attempts to draw) cash from your checking account, requiring you to file a claim or dispute to get it back or to go to the bank to have the fraud remedied immediately.

[EOP]

Some Good Ideas for Baseball Rule Changes

While everyone knows about the rule changes coming to MLB this season (pitch clock; bigger bases; limitations on shifting), baseball is an ever evolving game (it started with underhand pitching with no thought to tricking the batter) that might consider some further changes. These include: permitting forfeits (in essence a voluntary mercy rule); allowing tie games; bounced strikes; circular bases; and best of 9 world series.

[EOP]

Amazon Whole Foods Grocery Order Contact Info

If you've ever had a problem with an Amazon Whole Foods delivery order (like a driver getting totally lost and wandering around the globe with their phone turned off), you know how difficult it is to get to the correct rep. After much effort, I am pleased to share with you a number that is not published and Amazon does not routinely give out that will get you directly through: 1-877-477-3527. Please do not share this number or let anyone know how you got it. Thanks.

[EOP] 

Beginner's Tutorial re Mask Wearing Protocol

If you are approached by someone for a favor, such as giving them a ride in your car, Mandy Potemkin and his wife have made this short video as to the do's and don'ts in handling the situation. If he had a spouse, Larry David perhaps could have done it better, but this is pretty pretty good.

[EOP]

Tesla Price Cuts

Tesla has slashed the prices on Tesla 3s, Ys, and other models, many of which also qualify now for a $7,500 tax credit. It's hard to tell if the used Tesla market has followed with its own price declines, but it would be surprising if it didn't.

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The Fed and Undefined Terms

The Fed has gotten unrelenting criticism for supposedly being late to start raising interest rates  because it had the purportedly wrong view that inflation was "transitory." The problem with this criticism is that neither the Fed nor its critics even tried to articulate a definition of "transitory." Implicitly, the critics equated "transitory" with "brief," which is not a word the Fed used, but, even then, "brief" was undefined. Here's the bottom line: If the Fed meant by "transitory" a matter of a few months, then it surely was badly mistaken. But, if the Fed meant by "transitory" a period of a year or two, then, as the recent inflation data shows (and the reasons inflation seems to be taming (e.g., unclogging of supply chains)), then it was right. Why does this definitional void matter? Because for the moment, the investing world seems to believe that the Fed will reverse its current interest rate policy sooner than it says it will, i.e., it believes the Fed has again made a "mistake" when what is really happening is that terms are undefined.

[EOP] 

5G: A Big Letdown

As this WSJ article sets out, while 5G has had some substantial impact in various technologies and undertakings, it has not made any appreciable difference much less a big difference when it comes to smartphones (e.g., latency is no better with 5G than 4G LTE).  So, if you think your new 5G phone doesn't do anything better than your 4G LTE phone did, you're right.

[EOP]

Poor Jack Smith

Upon being appointed special counsel in the Trump document and January 6 cases, Jack Smith had to believe he had the job of a lifetime, being the first person to indict a former president, at least on the open and shut document case that was handed to him. Parse stuff any way you want, thanks to the Biden revelations, that case against Trump is now toast. At the very most, Smith might indict Trump's lawyers for obstruction. That leaves the slim possibility that, should they testify that Trump ordered them to not cooperate, conceal the documents existence, and not turn them back to the National Archive, there could be an obstruction case against Trump. But don't hold your breath. 

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Some Further Tips re Checking Account Fraud

1. When dealing with phone reps, ask for a supervisor as soon as you don't get a proper answer.

2. Ask for the direct phone number of the fraud or customer support number you are dealing with. There should be at least 2 that have 24x7 support and are staffed with supervisors. At least Chase does.

3. The phone rep's access to your account info may show the rep info that has not yet updated on what you're looking at online. That said, the phone rep might not know that and will try to tell you that what you're looking at is wrong information which cannot be explained.

4. A provisional credit for the fraudulent amount might not be given automatically as is typically done with credit card frauds. Be sure to ask that you get a provisional credit.

5. As with credit card frauds, auto-draws and perhaps other requested payments should result in your being given the option to accept or reject, which gives you time to change your banking info for auto-payments.6

6. Don't do Wordle while you struggling with the phone rep.

 Wordle 572 X/6

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[EOP]

Checking Account Identity Theft: Some Basics

As difficult as it is to cure a fraudulent credit card charge and take prophylactic measures to prevent any fraudulent credit card charge, curing a fraudulent transaction on one's checking account is even more difficult. Assuming you have your alerts set to see any check payments (and if you do not have such alerts set, you playing with fire), as soon as you see an authorized payment (e.g., to a credit card you don't have and never heard of), phone the 8xx fraud line for your bank and report it. Be sure to get a statement of dispute/claim no. Then go to your bank and have them print out that statement for you, which you will sign, and have them fax it in. If they have not heard of such a thing, while you are there call the 8xx number you called earlier and have your banker talk to the phone rep. Then be sure to have the account in question closed and a new one opened and everything but the alerts will transfer. The good news is that most if not all of any auto-pay draws should be changeable online through the entity's website to which those draws are paid. 

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Football Stadium Crowds and Inflation

To understand inflation, one need only watch a football game on TV. Actually, don't watch the game, watch the crowds. There will be a moment (actually many moments) when something of note is happening on the field, and someone in the crowd stands up thinking it will give them a better view. What happens next is the person behind them has to stand up because their view has been blocked, and quickly everyone has to stand up to see what's happening. If  everyone had just stayed seated, they could have saved the energy of standing up and seen what's happening just as well. Inflation is the result of the essentially the same non-rational mass conduct of people rushing to buy things because other people are rushing to buy things.

[EOP]

Possible Further Source of Lobster Rolls in Phoenix: Nelson's Meat & Fish

It is reported that Nelson's Meat & Fish at 24th Street & East Indian School has lobster rolls. Maybe so, but they don't even have a menu on their website or any other  useful information for that matter. If I learn anything further, it shall be posted. 

[EOP]

Biden on Documents Taken to His Private Office and on Documents Taken to Mara Lago

Biden says he was "surprised to learn government records, including classified documents, were taken to his private office." Biden's comments as to the documents taken to Mara Lago. Yeah, this is going to end well.

[EOP]

What to Do With Kyrsten Sinema

By switching from Democrat to Independent, Sinema accomplishes two things should she run for her senate seat in 2024: (i) She avoids a primary fight; and (ii) given Gallegos' likely lack of the kind of broad-based (Independent and moderate Republican) appeal a Democrat needs to win in Arizona, she likely insures a Republican (even a MAGA Republican) will win her seat. If Biden and the Democratic party cares about retaining control of the senate, the best thing to do with Sinema is get her out of the senate now. Specifically, give her a job in the Administration that will set her on a course for a new career, one that she would see as highly important, rewarding, and (immediately or in the long term) lucrative. Just throwing this out: The Attorney General position is currently held by someone who would prefer to shift the big stuff to someone else; also, she's younger than some of the liberals on the Supreme Court.

[EOP] 

Lessons From College Football Championship Game

TCU scored 51 points when it beat Michigan in the semi-finals, and then lost by 58 points to Georgia in the championship game. Whether the Big 10 [sic] Conference belongs in the playoff is arguable, it is clear that the Big 12 [sic] Conference does not. Yet, when the NCAA expands the playoffs to 8 or 12 teams, unless it limits participation to SEC schools, the purses will be the big winner and quality football games the big loser.

[EOP] 

Further Note on Big (5.0 cf) Washers

An earlier post explained that the difference in the size of the load that can be handled by a 5.0 cf washer vs. a 4.5 cf washer is HUGE. It is hard to believe the reduction in wash loads you will do (with no additional water or electricity) if you opt for the larger washer. But, there is one downside: Because the load is so much bigger, the time it takes to hang all the clothes held by washer on one's lines or pool fencing is demonstrably longer. Obviously, that is not so if one adds up the time over a month or longer. But for each wash day, it surely is. Just saying.

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So Much for the Investment Pros

If you think you're alone in not doing so well in the stock market in 2022, you're not. Indeed, as the WSJ reports, of the 1410 U.S. stock funds that are actively managed, only 40 were able to post a positive return. For the mathematically challenged, that's 2.8%. Put another way, 97.2% of the professional stock fund money managers lost money. Put one other way, when you listen to their market insights on TV or read their written commentary, you might pause before doing as they seem to suggest you do.

[EOP] 

The Case Against the Frequent Rebalancing of Portfolios

As this WSJ article argues, while the conventional wisdom on portfolio rebalancing is clear: Do it on a regular schedule so your balance of asset classes doesn’t get out of whack, the statistical evidence is equally clear: Frequent portfolio rebalancing is a largely pointless exercise. The benefits of rebalancing are often exaggerated, and those that are realistic can be achieved at significantly less frequent intervals.

[EOP]

Transferring I-Bonds to an External Account

I officially give up trying to figure out how to transfer I-bonds to an external account. I think you need to fill out and file a Form FSF5511 and good luck with that. I apologize for any confusion or perceived misdirection on this issue. Actually, I'm so fed up with Treasury Direct, where the hold time to get through for help on the phone is 2+ hours and they have no email support, that I'm likely just going to redeem my holdings and move the proceeds into 2-year of 3-year non-callable CDs while they are still paying well over 4%.

[EOP]

Identity Theft Protection

We have long advocated that everyone have a service to give you an immediate alert if there is any significant "event" that might be indicative of or a prelude to an identity theft. We have not evaluated the various offerings but we have found that Complete ID which is available through Costco works great. Just the other day, it sent an immediate alert when there was an email address change noted on Experian. Within minutes, that enabled the enrollee to undo the email address change, and put a freeze and fraud alerts on their credit agency accounts. Again, we are not saying Complete ID is the best, but this is not the first time it caught something like this, and at $16/month to cover everyone in the household, it's a bargain. Whatever you get, and I doubt any free service does this, be sure it sends email or text alerts when anything happens on the credit front.

[EOP]

White Noise (2022 Movie on Netflix)

If you like what's called "intellectual conceit" when it comes to a movie, otherwise known as a script and dialogue that make no sense but everyone says "wow, that was deep," and you like Adam Driver, this movie is for you. Further, if you like movies where kids are given supposed lines of wisdom or witticism beyond their age, again, this is movie for you. Otherwise, you might stop watching after about 20 minutes, sadly concluding that even Don Cheadle, given the character he has to play and how he plays it, can't save it. Fans of this movie might argue it's not to be taken seriously because it's a spoof of something. Even if that's correct, it doesn't make the movie any easier for any discerning viewer to watch. 

[EOP]

Three Easy Rules to Enhanced Productivity

[Adapted from the NYT]

1. Shrink the Elephant Task: If the task is a big one, break it down into steps, i.e., consistent with the answer to how you eat an elephant--one bite at a time.

2. Incentivize Yourself: Give yourself a reward as each step/task is accomplished before going on to the next.

3. Don't Put It Off: This is the MOST IMPORTANT rule: Do NOT put off the first step/task. Do NOT create a list of steps/tasks. As soon as you know the first step/task you need to do, DO IT! Following this rule avoids the trap of proscrastination, which is the number one impediment to getting anything done, much less everything done.

[EOP]

Auto Stop-Start Feature

Auto Start/Stop Technology automatically shuts off the engine when the vehicle comes to a full stop and idles for more than a few seconds. Once the driver puts pressure on the accelerator, then the engine turns back on. It’s simple, and some say it can save between 3-5% of gas in stop-and-go traffic. This article explains the technology and why this feature does not harm the ignition, engine, or anything else. It's a win/win for the car owner and the environment, so please be sure it's on the next gasoline or hybrid car you buy.

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2023 Prius Is Here

The 2023 Prius is or very soon will be available at your local dealer. It is redesigned and now quite sporty and, best of all, the two-piece split rear window is gone and it's, like reasonable cars, now a single pane  of glass. It's got some quirks (e.g., the automatic braking) and it's not easy to figure out the difference in the various models, but  the reviews are generally good.

Car and Driver Review 

Specs of the Different Trims

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How to Reheat Pasta With Sauce and No Mess

There are three ways to reheat pasta with sauce in a microwave: heat the sauce and the pasta separately; pour the sauce on top of the pasta and heat together; or pour the sauce in first and the pasta on top. The problem with the first two ways is that, unless it is covered (whether alone or with the pasta), the sauce will splatter all over the inside of the microwave. But, with the sauce-on-the-bottom method, putting a wet paper towel sheet over the pasta (which tends to remoisturize the pasta) will prevent any such mess. On a related note, except for my homemade sauce from scratch, TJ's Autumnal Harvest Pasta Sauce is the best, but note that, in what makes TJ so annoying, it is available only seasonally and that season ends before the winter equinox begins.

[EOP]

Lobster in Phoenix

I haven't tried them because they're not that close, but there are two lobster roll places in Phoenix that look to be worth trying: The Spot at Arcadia at 48th Street and E. Indian School Road; and Angie's Lobster at Pinnacle Peak Road North of the 101 and one in Mesa and one in Tempe and more coming. Angie's is drive through only and the lobster rolls are $9.99 so that probably means one should have at least 2 and possibly 3 per person. The Spot at Arcadia is a regular restaurant with many other dishes and the lobster roll is $24.99 so likely one is enough per person.

[EOP]

Who Wants the Title of a Leadership Position That Doesn't Exist?

A newly-appointed federal agency head had to staff the agency on a limited budget, which did not allow paying recruits what they might make in the private market or otherwise, so they embraced the mantra: "I can pay you only X dollars but you can have any title you want." Those were real jobs and the approach worked to attract talented people. In sharp contrast, it is now clear that the House speakership if under Republican control no longer is a real job--it is just a title. Whoever ends up getting that title will be subordinate to 5-20 nut jobs who would prefer to tear down the government and even the country rather than do the kind of work most voters would like to see their representatives do. In essence, then, the only representatives who might be qualified to become speaker would be those who do not want a mere title, because they would be the only hope of having leadership rise from the ashes of the Freedom Caucus.

[EOP]

If the House Freedom Caucus Only Believed in What They Say

The House Freedom Caucus, which is successfully blocking McCarthy's bid for a speakership, has an easy path to electing a new speaker: All they need to do is nominate Trump and let's see how many House Republicans vote against him.

[EOP]

Ethics of Couples' Reserving Plane Seats

When couples who wish to seat next to or close to each other travel in economy class on an single-aisle airplane on a flight that provides for reserve seating, they have four choices: reserve two aisle seats across from each other; reserve an aisle and middle seat; reserve a middle and window seat; or reserve an aisle and window seat. The first three options raise no ethical considerations. But the last one does. Clearly, couples opting for that choice are hoping no one will take the middle seat giving them a row to themselves or, if someone does, that person will be willing to trade or will have to endure the couple talking over them. Of course, they also run the risk the person occupying the middle seat will be so angry upon seeing the gaming the couple did, they will make the trip as unpleasant as possible for the couple--which would teach the ethically-challenged couple a deserved lesson.

[EOP]

Slow Horses (TV Series on Apple TV)

Season 1 was really good. Season 2 is even better as you get to know the characters better and everything becomes more understandable the more you watch. This is one fantastic cast, and story-telling at its best. It's definitely not in the category of "seen it." Can't wait for Season 3.

[EOP] 

Blocking Ads on Chrome on Androids

While many Chrome settings carry over from your computer to your phones, ad blocking does not. This article sets out the easy step-by-step way to block ads on Chrome on Android phones.

[EOP]

Don't Hesitate to Dispute Credit Card Charges

Back in May, a blog post recounted the experience of a loyal reader where their STR was not as advertised (e.g., the pool heater didn't work), the owner would not make an appropriate accommodation, and they filed a dispute with the credit card company--and when there was no response within 60 days, the dispute automatically was decided in their favor and they got reimbursed their entire STR charge. We are now aware of where a credit card dispute was made seeking the refund of what Tesla clearly had said was a "non-refundable" Tesla charge. The dispute claimed that Tesla had improperly buried in fine print (instead of making clear) a change in policy whereby Tesla no longer offered the option upon leasing a Tesla 3 to buy it at the end of the lease. Whether Tesla decided to do right, or just failed to respond, we'll never know. But what we do know is, 60 days after the "non-refundable" charge appeared on the card, that charge was refunded to the card holder. Bottom-line: You never know how I dispute might turn out--so, as long as there is a reasonable basis to dispute a charge, and you disclose all the facts (e.g., that Tesla had clearly stated the charge was "non-refundable" was disclosed), go for it!

[EOP]

Rainbows Over Phoenix Continued

Thanks to loyal readers, two more views of New Year's Day 2023 over Phoenix: 

[EOP]

Einstein's Actual View of God, Faith, and Religion

There is a common notion advanced by many arguing for the existence of God and the importance of faith and religion that Einstein believed in God and faith and was religious. The truth is Einstein did not believe in a personal God tied up in the fates of humans or humankind. Rather, for him, faith was a recognition that there was mystery and beauty in the universe and that the experience of this mystery was religion. As Einstein put it: "To sense that behind anything that can be experienced there is something that our minds cannot grasp, whose beauty and sublimity teaches us only indirectly: this is religiousness. In this sense, and in this sense only, I  am a devoutly religious man."

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How Phoenix (on Our Block) Rings in the New Year

This photo was taken at 5:30 pm on January 1, 2023 in North Central Phoenix on the very street this blog is created. In person, it was a bit brighter and there was a second one, making for a double rainbow.

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Why to Stop Reading the NYT Op-Ed Pages

No one in their right mind reads the op-ed pages of the WSJ--their editorial board and columnists are from another planet. The NYT seems Hell-bent on also being on the "do not read" list of  op-ed pages. Putting aside their printing a guest essay of crackpot Molly Worthen that in effect argued that cancer patients might better put their faith in God than in doctors and medical science, and then refusing even to allow reader comments online or print any objection to the NYT's such as this one: "On many matters, there can be differences of opinion, and your editorial pages are a proper place to air those differences. But, when it comes to scientific, and especially medical, fact, your editorial pages are not a proper place to publish inherently dangerous anti-scientific and anti-medical ramblings in the guise of supposed counter-opinion. In reality, what you’ve done by giving Ms. Worthen the legitimacy of your imprimatur stands on equally shameful footing as those who give anti-vaxxers and climate-change-deniers a forum to air their 'opinions.'” The NYT's January 1 op-ed pages have reached new lows: (i) Nicholas Kristof espouses the view that there need be no fears on the climate-change front because scientific breakthroughs will save us; (ii) Elizabeth Spiers embraces the ridiculous mantra of what might produce changes in policies or outcomes ("if only everyone") when, in lashing out against the airlines, she muses, "At some point, consumers might rebel at the cost and just stop flying"--yeah, right, and pigs will start flying; (iii) Aaron Carroll's railing against blue states' banning state funded travel to states that have enacted discriminatory laws curbing basic freedoms; and (iv) Rob Walker's terribly important (but to any balanced person a terrifying) piece about why "clutter is good for you--Take that, Marie Kondo."

[EOP]

How to Fool Your Friends With Your (Apparent) Wordle Prowess

If you do Wordle without signing in, your score and stats will show as your first game. Upon doing so, you will know the answer word, and you can then log in, and then put the winning word in step 1 and shzam, you can share your prowess with friends. Some might say this is sort of like cheating, but then they are the same people who look at the Hints to solve the Daily Spelling Bee or share their Netflix passwords with people living outside their households.

Wordle 560 1/6

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[EOP]

Reflections on College Football

I didn't watch any college football games this season until the Michigan/TCU game. The only football I watched were the Cardinals (to watch really bad football) and the Eagles (to watch really good football). Based on my one college football game data point, here are my reflections: (i) the fans are even goofier than pro fans; (ii) the refereeing is equally bad or worse; (iii) the TV cameras' constant panning of the moronic crowd is annoying; (iv) some appear to think the Michigan fight song cannot be played enough even when Michigan is losing; (v) not sure what the coaches are thinking half the time ... have they never heard of a challenge and have they never thought trick plays are not needed to score on 4th down from the 1-yard line; (vi) if there is a challenge or any instant review system, it's broken and unknown to the coaches; and (vii) there must be a rule against making defensive adjustments that might hold the total scoring to under 96 points.

[EOP]