The likelihood of predicting the winner of the presidential election is based on asking likely voters for whom they will vote. This approach suffers from substantial flaws, from determining whether the respondent truly is a likely voter to whether the response is truthful, not to mention sampling infirmities given cellphones and other externalities that make random stratified sampling a virtual metaphysical impossibility. Yet, this seems to be the only metric used to prognosticate the outcome in the key swing states (assuming the election in 2020 is electorally close as it was in 2016).
Here are the metrics that should be polled and likely would be better predictors: Is the country on the right/wrong track? Do you view Trump/Biden favorably or unfavorably? How much do you trust Trump/Biden to handle the pandemic? How confident are you that Trump/Biden can bring the economy back? Ask those questions in the swing states, and the answers should give a fairly reliable estimate of the presidential election outcome ... assuming there is no substantially skewed voter suppression or substantially skewed failure to count the votes actually cast.
Some might be distressed that it is now clear that Fauci has been pushed aside in favor of Scott Atlas, a radiologist from the Hoover Institute. But the "good news" is that finally there is going to be a White House plan for dealing with the pandemic: As the WAPO and others report, if Atlas gets his way, we will be going the herd immunity route as Sweden did. See Link to WAPO Article
But wait, there's more good news: Trump has confirmed that the COVID-19 death count is overstated and that, in actuality, there are fewer
than 10,000 COVID-19 deaths because that’s how many COVID-19 "causes of death
appear on death certificates." Phew ... no longer do we have to endure the death count being stated in 6 figures because, as Trump has explained, when someone’s
lungs gave out and "stopped breathing" is put down as the cause of death, it won't be included. That certainly puts to rest Dr. Wen's bizarre view that the actual COVID-19 death toll is understated based on her fuzzy math that shows that the number of deaths this year vs. the
same period last year is 250,000 higher this year, leading her to conclude that the actual
COVID-19 death rate is higher than what is being reported.
[Courtesy of the NYT (which has apparently nothing better to do given the letters it ignores]
How good do you think you are at picking the best ways to reduce your emissions? Take this mini-quiz based on the study and see if your guesses fall inside the range of realistic answers. Link to NYT Test
Many years ago, I suggested that MLB go to a modified NFL-style format. Instead of playing 6 games a week, they should play only Friday night through Sunday, with perhaps a couple of Monday night games. This would have taken the season from its endless and too many pointless hundreds of games to under 80 games, where each game would be important, and there would be far more close division races. Fewer starting pitchers would be needed and less travel and less of much else, all to the good since less is more. Most important, it would drive up fan interest and television viewership as well as stadium attendance. In short, it would be a win for management (lower cost and higher revenues), for the players (a more reasonable life at no lower and perhaps higher pay), and for the fans (greater interest and more fun to watch). Given what the division races are looking like in this pandemic-baseball season, if MLB wakes up, they just might realize the time has come for my decades-ahead-idea to be implemented.
PS: It is meet to note that some of the record books and pertinent stats will have to be rewritten. There's an easy but complete answer to that: Get over it! There's also a more nuanced but just as compelling answer to that: It would be nice for MLB to have a complete re-do of all the records and stats putting the steroid era and all the asterisks behind us.
Even taking account of how he did in Dog Police, the Coneheads, Happy Gilmore, the Wedding Singer, Deuce Bigelow: Male Gigolo, and Fifty First Dates, among others, this is undoubtedly Adam Sandler's best performance on the large screen, and certainly his most serious one. The story is not a new one--someone facing severe financial difficulties and the risks he undertakes and dangers he faces in trying to rescue himself. Still, while this is not an easy movie to watch, you might enjoy watching him unravel as the hole he digs gets deeper and deeper, punctuated by some very human moments albeit not necessarily enjoyable ones to watch. Two spoiler alerts: Martin Scorsese is an executive producer which explains a lot; and the last character you see is not Richard Lewis although it really looks like him with a wig and glasses and added weight.
Any president, just as Trump did, would have analogized the fight against the coronavirus as a war to mobilize. Unlike Trump, however, they would have done so not as empty words, but to rally Americans to do the right thing. Even a bad president, like Bush, not to mention a great leader like Roosevelt (or a Churchill), would have followed through as opposed to going off into fantasy land. The multi-year sacrifices Americans made under Roosevelt (or the British made under Churchill) to support the war efforts should put us to shame. As recent studies by Harvard and others have confirmed, if we the people had followed the basic precepts of sheltering, social distancing and masking, instead of having over 180,000 deaths now, we would have had about 20,000. There is no question sheltering, social distancing, and masking impose burdens and hardships, but such burdens and hardships are peanuts compared to the hardships citizens faced during World War II, who, when they look down on us and here us complain, must be saying: Oh, boo-hoo!
The tragic irony is that we are going to exceed the WW II death toll, and perhaps the death toll of all our wars, because we don't have the leadership and we don't have as a people even a fraction of the character as those who came before us. When Bush faced the 2008 financial melt-down, he turned to Bernanke and Paulsen and said, in effect, I have no idea what to do, I will trust you and support whatever you think should be done, and I will do whatever you tell me to do. If whoever was president when the pandemic came to our shores had turned to Dr. Fauci and done simply that, and then turned to the American people and told and shown us what we needed to do, we just might have made it until a properly tested vaccine arrived. But that leadership was never there, and we as a people are unwilling to carry the supposed overwhelming hardship of sheltering, socially distancing, and masking. Poor Adolph Hitler: He must be turning over in his grave in lamenting how he might have fared if only he had faced such as moronic and corrosively corrupt leader and a people with such little resolve and little tolerance for sacrifice.
PS: While violence and senseless killing are to be condemned, is there any irony that Trump is willing to spend so much time and effort on preventing the few needless deaths that result while ignoring the 1,000+ deaths each day from COVID-19? And does it make any sense that media's attention has tilted so heavily in the same vein, such that the election is now said might turn more on the fallout from some aberrant street rioters than the fallout from an out-of-control virus?
[The following is courtesy of the Guardian and brought to our attention by a loyal reader knowing that we are in the process of evaluating nominees for most terrifying and disgusting presentations at the RNC]
Binders full of fascist women
What’s the collective noun for a group of racist white women? I’m not sure, but I think it might be a Republican national convention (RNC). Nobody can accuse the four-day horror show, which wound up on Thursday, of skimping on female speakers. Everywhere you looked there were women – and most of them looked exactly the same. Same long bottle-blond hair; same makeup; same cold, dead look in the eyes.
The strategy behind all the women on stage was about as subtle as Kimberly Guilfoyle’s speaking style. (Or should I say: SHOUTING STYLE.) Donald Trump is doing badly with women in the polls; the RNC was his chance to remind us all that he is the greatest male feminist of our time. One by one Trump’s female advisers sang his praises and reflected on the Pussy Grabber in Chief’s gender-blind leadership.
Lara Trump, a campaign adviser, gushed over her father-in-law’s mentorship of women in the workplace. The White House press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, announced that she wanted her baby daughter to grow up in “Trump’s America”. Kellyanne Conway, who will be leaving the White House at the end of the month, claimed the president routinely elevates women. “[Trump] respects our opinions, and insists that we are on equal footing with the men,” she said.
Conway actually has a valuable point there. When it comes to hypocrisy, bigotry and the lack of a functioning moral compass, the women in Trump’s inner circle are on an undeniably equal footing with the men: the RNC made that crystal clear. Just to drum it home, however, here are five of the most terrifying performances by women from the convention.
5. Abby ‘abortion has a smell’ Johnson
“I know what abortion smells like,” the anti-choice activist bellowed on Tuesday night; Johnson proceeded to use her primetime speaking spot to demonize the right to an abortion in a very graphic speech. Johnson’s extreme rhetoric was in keeping with her extremely bigoted views. “Statistically, my [adopted] brown son is more likely to commit a violent offense over my white sons,” Johnson once said; she added that the police would thus be “smart” to racially profile him. Johnson also believes that husbands should have the “final say” over their wife’s vote. Her RNC speech was a chilling reminder of the war Trump will wage on women’s reproductive rights if he gets another four years.
4. Cissie Graham Lynch
Lynch, the granddaughter of the late Rev Billy Graham, a highly influential evangelical Christian, also used her speech to crusade against the right to an abortion. However, she also found time for some disgusting transphobia. Lynch referred to transgender girls as “boys” and stoked baseless fears that trans people are sexual predators who want access to bathrooms for nefarious purposes. There has been a horrific spike in violence against trans people in 2020; the likes of Lynch seem intent on putting trans lives in even more danger.
3. Melania Trump
What makes Melania so dangerous is the way so many (largely male) members of the press can’t help themselves from fawning over her. “The first lady has one trait that her husband lacks: empathy,” CNN’s Chris Cillizza wrote after Melania’s speech on Tuesday. Are you kidding me? This is the woman who excused and echoed Trump’s racist birther theories about Barack Obama. This is the woman who went to visit children in cages while wearing a jacket emblazoned with “I really don’t care, do you?” There is nothing empathetic about Melania but she does help humanize Trump; she functions like Febreze for fascism.
2. The Honorable Ivanka Trump
Ivanka collects titles the same way other people collect tchotchkes. One day she’s an entrepreneur and writer, the next day she’s adviser to the president. On Thursday she was, bizarrely, introduced as “the Honorable”. “The Hypocritical” would be rather more fitting. Like Melania, Ivanka is insidious because she softens and sanitizes the Trump administration; her faux feminism helps Trump mask his misogynistic agenda. Unlike Melania, Ivanka seems to have her heart set on being president one day. It wasn’t so much the contents of Ivanka’s RNC speech that were scary, but the fact that we can expect to see her pontificating from powerful podiums for a very long time.
1. Nikki Haley
“America is not a racist country,” Haley declared on the opening night of the convention. She knows this, you see, because her parents were Sikh immigrants and her family faced “discrimination and hardship”. Haley’s speech was very on-brand: throughout her career she has weaponized her identity to deny the existence of systemic oppression. She’s a valuable tool for white supremacists and misogynists – she helps launder their bigotry. Unlike many of the morons in Trump’s orbit, Haley has more than two brain cells to rub together. She’s smart; she knows exactly what she’s doing and, as long as it helps her personally, she doesn’t care. It’s highly likely that she’ll run for president in 2024 or 2028. If that happens, God help us all. Her RNC speech was filled with lies but, because she uttered them in an articulate way, pundits fell over themselves to praise her. The only thing more terrifying than four more years of Trump is a successor who is equally cruel but actually competent.
[Prefatory Note 1: We asked the WSJ to test 50 masks we gave them to find the best, and below are the results. Note, however, we have a master mask maker on our staff, and the conflict of interest rules would not allow us to include her masks in the findings. That said, her masks are the best ever--full stop, period!]
[Prefatory Note 2: The full WSJ Article has related pieces on the growing evidence of the efficacy of face masks, answers to important questions (e.g., Should your face mask fashion-match your outfit?), and useful tips (e.g., how to keep your glasses clean when wearing a mask). Here is the link to these pieces: Link to Noted Pieces ]
While medical workers often rely on heavy-duty masks like the N95 with its superior filtration abilities, most of us make do with simple cloth masks to pick up sushi or walk our stir-crazy mutts. (The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recommends that “people wear masks in public and when around people who don’t live in your household.”). But the abundance of masks on the market has made choosing one a guessing game.
To meet the newfound demand, much of the apparel-production industry has adapted existing factories to churn out masks. Operations both large—Fruit of the Loom, Gap—and small—Amadi, a womenswear brand in Los Angeles—have been manufacturing face covers at a steady clip. “I looked around at my 16,000-square-foot factory here in L.A. and we had sewing machines and fabric and everything and I was like, we can’t not help,” said Ellen Bennett, founder of Hedley & Bennett, a culinary workwear company that for three months produced nothing but masks, at an average of a thousand a day.
Face covers differ greatly from label to label. Some have nose wires to ensure a tighter fit. Some are cotton. Others—like those from shoe brand Atoms—boast materials like copper which studies have shown can be antimicrobial. And some try to distinguish themselves through color and pattern. Five members of the Off Duty fashion team tried 50 unisex reusable cloth masks to find the best of the bunch across the categories of fit, breathability, style and material. —Jacob Gallagher
Let the Mask Olympics Begin!
Our panel of editor-testers ranked 50 unisex cloth masks on a scale of 40, with 10 points each for fit, material, breathability and style.* Here are the results.
*Masks were not scientifically tested for safety.
BEST OVERALL + BEST FIT: Wayre (36.5)
Made by a do-gooder travel-apparel company, this 5-layer mask features a thoughtful face-enveloping design and silky-touch fabric. Mask, $18, shopwayre.com
BEST BREATHABILITY: Caraa (34.4)
This mask is made of a butterfly-wing-thin and not-at-all-itchy lightweight cotton that won’t give you a sweaty upper lip. Masks, $25 for 5, caraasport.com
BEST FIT (RUNNER-UP): Marcellamoda (31)
With a nose wire and adjustable straps, this one scored well for its sleek style and snug (but not too snug) fit. Mask, $14, marcellamodanyc.com
BEST STYLE: Clare V. (23.2)
This California designer also makes a feminine bow mask, but this simpler contrasting-prints one earns our fashion ardor. Bisous Masks, $35 for 4, clarev.com
BEST MATERIAL: Atoms (34)
This mask is made of a pleasing poly-blend outer layer and “copper-lined ionized quartz yarn” inner one. Plus: no fogging for the bespectacled. Mask, $12, atoms.com
Nxt Stop (33.8)
This insanely soft mask fits so tenderly that one tester said she could sleep in it. Bamboo Face Mask, $14, thenxtstop.com
Bloch (33.8)
Made by a ballet-wear company, this was one of our faves for its softness and minimal design. B-Safe Face Mask, $7, blochworld.com
Athleta (32.2)
Billing itself as “made to move,” this mask is getting a strong reputation as a good sport option. Masks, $25 for 3, athleta.com
Todd Snyder (32.2)
This airy mask sits comfortably around the nose, and comes in masculine prints. Mask, $20, toddsnyder.com
Wolford (32.2)
The mask from this fancy tights brand has a strong Matrix-y style but the fabric’s on the dense side. Classic Mask, $35, wolford.com
Amadi (32)
With nose panels and a curved “chin,” this soft mask secures nicely across the face. Expandable Ear-Loops Mask, $12, amadi.com
Vida (31.3)
This deceptively simple mask has a filter, but the ear straps didn’t fit our male tester’s larger dome. Protective Mask, $10, shopvida.com
Suay (31.2)
These charming, almost vintage-looking masks have smart fit details like a flexible nose bridge. Surgical Wrap Mask, $18 suayla.com
This poofy mask is comfortable, but with its dense insulation, it’s best for cold days. Mask, $30, underarmour.com
Gap (29)
As one of our testers said, “fashion but not too fashion.” Nice patterns plus a nose wire. Unisex Masks. $15 for 3, gap.com
Everybody.World (28)
Its light fabric makes it great for heat, but the elastic straps annoy. Scour Jersey Scrap Mask, $10, everybody.world
Keen (27.6)
These hefty masks lack an adjustable nose bridge. Some feature art by the late Jerry Garcia. Masks, $20 for 2, keenfootwear.com
Standard Issue (27.2)
Made of light cotton and available in prints like tie-dye, it’s barely there but a bit flimsy. Masks, $30 for 3, standardissuetees.com
Esby (26.5)
While its one-size-fits-all dimensions won’t work for all, those in the standard zone will like its softness. Mask. $19, esbyapparel.com
MOCA (26.25)
Prints from artists like Yoko Ono and Andy Warhol (shown) adorn these limited-edition cotton masks. Mask, $28, mocastore.org
John Elliott (26.2)
A soft mask in tie-dye or black that sleekly grips the cheeks, though it gaps a bit up top. Tie-Dye Face Masks, $65 for 3, johnelliott.com
Parachute (26)
We like that these tieback masks are simple, but they don’t offer full coverage. Masks, $30 for 5, parachutehome.com
Rag & Bone (26)
Another mask offered in tie-dye that got props for fabric, but was docked for cheapo straps. Multi Pleat Mask, $30, rag-bone.com
Still Here (26)
Made from a canvas-like recycled cotton, the body of these masks is sturdy, yet the ear straps wimp out. Mask, $20, stillhere.nyc
Everlane (25.8)
A close fit for those who don’t mind Everlane’s earnest “100% Human” logo. 100% Human Face Masks, $25 for 5, everlane.com
Zensah (25.65)
Made from a reportedly odor-free fabric, this mask hugs the face a bit too aggressively. Performance Face Mask $16, zensah.com
Hedley & Bennett (25.2)
This comes with a spot to write your name, if you attend a mask swinger party. Mask, $22, hedleyandbennett.com
Baggu (24.75)
Though the design appears innovative with two strap types, in practice this mask sits close to the mouth. Masks, $32 for 3, baggu.com
Eskayel (24.4)
If you like an around-the-head double tie on your mask, this is a good pick. Masks, $38 for 5, eskayel.com
Mystery Ranch (24.2)
This outdoorsy mask offers a secure fit, though its shape recalls a Muppet beak. Street Mask, $16, mysteryranch.com
Prime Layers (23.8)
Even with two elastics that go behind your head and a nose wire, this mask had fit issues. Masks, $37 for 3, primelayers.com
Reformation (23.75)
Cute motifs reflect the brand’s pattern prowess, but the mask leaves much to be desired fit-wise. Mask, $10, thereformation.com
American Trench (23.6)
Although its style is sweet and simple, this mask is not adjustable. Summer Weight Face Mask, $13, americantrench.com
Casupo (23.2)
An average mask across the board, from fit (OK) to face feel (nothing to FaceTime home about). Palms Face Mask, $30, casupo.co
Bella + Canvas (23.05)
Those who like simplicity and thrift may appreciate this utilitarian cotton mask. Mask, $4, masks.bellacanvas.com
Citizens of Humanity (22.5)
Scored high on cheekiness with its prints, but it felt scratchy. Haas Brothers Pride Mask, $16, citizensofhumanity.com
Swimspot (22.5)
This poly mask felt like a shrunken bikini, and our panel found it both flimsy and itchy. Masks, $25 for 10, swimspot.com
Universal Standard (22.4)
Its jersey fabric is supple, but this mask slipped about when our testers talked. Mask, $15, universalstandard.com
Brixton (22.2)
This punchy mask’s elastic straps were comfortable, but its fit was average. Antimicrobial 4-Way Stretch Face Mask, $13, brixton.com
Birdwell (22)
Birdwell’s surf-y mask looks cool but features cumbersome assemble-your-own ear fasteners. Mask, $20, birdwell.com
Mavi (21.4)
Stamped with a prominent logo, this thin mask felt somehow too big and too small. Denim Face Masks, $15 for 2, us.mavi.com
Masqd (20.9)
Made in the USA, this mask is big among celebs, but with a sloppy fit, it’s unclear why. Leopard Face Mask, $20, masqd.com
Maskd (20.8)
One reviewer described these printed cotton masks as “sweet” but its nonadjustable fit sags. Mask, from $8, maskd.uk
Jack Henry (20.75)
This mask is made of a technical fabric that allows for easy breathing. Downside: Its fit is too loose. Mask, $18, jackhenry.co
Onzie (20.2)
Reviewers liked the stretchy, upcycled fabric on this mask, but most wished it were adjustable. Mindful Masks, $24 for 2, onzie.com
Smrtft (19)
This novel wraparound design is easy to keep in place. Problematically, it gives off bank-robber messages. Mask, $25, smrtft.com
Koral (18.8)
Made from antimicrobial material, this mask has a sheen that conjures a dominatrix. Shiny Netz Face Mask, $20, koral.com
Diop (18)
Beautiful patterns made this mask a style favorite among testers, but scratchy material lost it points. Mask, from $15, weardiop.com
Loup (14.65)
There’s not much to this insubstantial cotton mask in—you got it!—tie-dye. Its floppy fit disappoints. Mask, $15, louponline.com
Fruit of the Loom (14.2)
This mask did not fit any of our testers well. But hey, maybe we all have weird-shaped faces. Masks, $15 for 5, fruit.com
The Wall Street Journal is not compensated by retailers listed in its articles as outlets for products. Listed retailers frequently are not the sole retail outlets.
Agents Of Shield (Chic Division)
Fashionable insiders tell Christine Whitney about their go-to masks for milk runs, special outings and beyond
Illustration: ULI KNÖRZER
“My grab-and-go mask is a really unsexy brand: Old Navy. My mother bought me and my husband four. They’re the most comfortable that we have.” —Menelik Puryear, Fashion Photographer, Brooklyn, NY
Illustration: ULI KNÖRZER
“I rotate between cloth masks that I bought at a local store, Dragonfly Gifts. They’re hand-dyed in Nepal. The tie-dye mask is what I wear for grocery shopping.” —Maia Ruth Lee, Artist, Salida, Colo.
Illustration: ULI KNÖRZER
“For special occasions, I am loving Aaron Sciandra’s floral masks—I dig the whole ’60s Carnaby Street mod situation.” —Simon Doonan, Author and Fashion Commentator, New York, NY
Illustration: ULI KNÖRZER
“If my look for evening is colorful, I’ll wear my mask in African-inspired handmade fabric by MomentosBox. I got it from my African hairdresser.” —Michelle Elie, Designer, Cologne, Germany
Worse For the Wear
By now you should be clear on the sorts of masks we advocate. Here are six less credible styles we honestly can’t endorse.
Illustration: NATHANIEL KILCER
The ‘Why Bother?’
We’ve seen masks dangling from wrists, belt loops and even ankles. A common blooper? Suspending one from an ear, where it might not be working optimally.
Illustration: NATHANIEL KILCER
The Recycled C-Cup
No shortage of blogs recommend that folks repurpose old bras as masks, but that doesn’t mean you won’t look absurd talking through your underwear.
Illustration: NATHANIEL KILCER
The Overly Breathable
While lace and mesh might sound like appealingly airy fabrics for a face covering, they’re about as useful as a chocolate teapot in the rain.
Illustration: NATHANIEL KILCER
The Trompe L’Oeil
That goofy screenprinted mouth on top of your real mouth? Yes, everyone had the exact same idea back in March, and your dad ordered one on Etsy.
Illustration: NATHANIEL KILCER
The ‘Lady Gaga 2010’
For pop culture fans that are slightly stuck in the past, a meat mask is an organic choice that can double as dinner for your puppy. Not yet CFDA-approved, though.
Illustration: NATHANIEL KILCER
The Marie Antoinette
A strategically placed hole for a wine straw might be sustaining you on an emotional level, but it’s ill-advised on every other level.refa
